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December 2014

Posted by Mike LaChance on December 27, 2014 4 Comments
As 2014 comes to a close, it's expected for some writers to look back on the last twelve months and analyze the year that was. Two recent columns from well known outlets offer a very different view of where we are. Michael Grunwald of Politico is pretty sure everything is coming up roses:
Everything Is Awesome! Good news! The U.S. economy grew at a rollicking 5 percent rate in the third quarter. Oh, and it added 320,000 jobs in November, the best of its unprecedented 57 straight months of private-sector employment growth. Just in time for Christmas, the Dow just hit an all-time high and the uninsured rate is approaching an all-time low. Consumer confidence is soaring, inflation is low, gas prices are plunging, and the budget deficit is shrinking. You no longer hear much about the Ebola crisis that dominated the headlines in the fall, much less the border crisis that dominated the headlines over the summer. As Fox News host Andrea Tantaros proclaimed earlier this month: “The United States is awesome! We are awesome!” OK, she was talking about the Senate torture report, not the state of the union, but things in the U.S. do look rather awesome. Mitt Romney promised to bring unemployment down to 6 percent in his first term; it’s already down to 5.8 percent, half the struggling eurozone’s rate. Newt Gingrich promised $2.50 gas; it’s down to $2.38. Crime, abortion, teen pregnancy and oil imports are also way down, while renewable power is way up and the American auto industry is booming again. You don’t have to give credit to President Barack Obama for “America’s resurgence,” as he has started calling it, but there’s overwhelming evidence the resurgence is real.
Wow. Sounds great, huh? Not so fast.

Posted by Amy Miller on December 27, 2014 0 Comments
Just days after al-Shabaab insurgents attacked an African Union military base in Somalia, one of the group's leaders has been captured along the Somalia-Kenya border. From the AP:
A leader with the Islamic extremist group al-Shabab, who had a $3 million bounty on his head, surrendered in Somalia, a Somali intelligence official said Saturday. Zakariya Ismail Ahmed Hersi surrendered to Somali police in the Gedo region, said the intelligence officer, who insisted on anonymity because he is not authorized to speak to the press. Hersi may have surrendered because he fell out with those loyal to Ahmed Abdi Godane, al-Shabab's top leader who was killed in a U.S. airstrike earlier this year, the officer said. Hersi was one of seven top al-Shabab officials whom the Obama administration offered a total $33 million in rewards for information leading to their capture in 2012. It is not clear if the reward will be paid out for Hersi because he surrendered. Despite major setbacks in 2014, al-Shabab remains a threat in Somalia and the East African region. The group has carried out many terror attacks in Somalia and some in neighboring countries including Kenya, whose armies are part of the African Union troops bolstering Somalia's weak U.N.- backed government.
Reports out of Africa have confirmed that the Gashan (Somali special forces) have cleared out the last of the insurgents who attacked the AMISOM base in Mogadishu, but we still have very little information about why Hersi surrendered, or if his surrender had anything to do with Thursday's attack. Senior military official Col. Abas Ibrahim Gurey told CNN that "Zakariya has told us following his capture that he left Al-Shabaab a year and half ago and since then was looking for to surrender to the Somali government," but have otherwise been tight lipped about the man's motives.

Posted by Andrew Branca on December 27, 2014 27 Comments
Eugene Volokh has an interesting post over at his Volokh Conspiracy blog about a Washington-state Court of Appeals decision finding that there exists a Constitutional right of self-defense against attacking animals.  That decision, State v. Hull (Wash. Ct. App. Dec. 18, 2014),  is embedded at the bottom of this post. Professor Volokh's post on the matter is, as usual, insightful and worth reading, although it delves into considerable legal minutiae (as it must, given that the decision it discusses is based upon that minutiae).

"Bad Cases Make for Bad Law"

All the legalese aside, the decision could well be an interesting read even to non-lawyers for reasons unmentioned by Professor Volokh, and that is because it illustrates the truth of the adage, "Bad cases make for bad law." It seems inarguable that a person would have the legal right to defend himself against an unprovoked attack, regardless of the form--human aggressor, attacking animal, rampaging zombie, whatever. Yet at the trial the prosecution made precisely the argument that Washington state's self-defense laws applied only to a human attacker, and not to an animal attacker, and that therefore the defendant's request for a self-defense instruction should be denied.  Notably, this was an argument centered on what jury instructions were to be read, so it was made directly to the trial judge as a single individual, and not to the jury generally, so the prosecution needed to convince only one mind to agree.

Posted by Mike LaChance on December 27, 2014 8 Comments
2016 is still quite a way off but that hasn't stopped speculation about the chances for each of the major parties. Bill Barrow of the Associated Press looks back at the last few elections and raises an important question for the next one:
Can GOP shatter 'Obama coalition' in 2016? Republicans crowed in 2004 that freshly re-elected President George W. Bush had established a "permanent governing majority" for the GOP. Eight years later, Democrats were touting the enduring power of the "Obama coalition" to keep their party in the White House. But Democrats couldn't sustain that coalition for this year's midterm elections, leading to Republican gains in Congress, governorships and state legislatures nationwide. "The notion of demographics as destiny is overblown," said Republican pollster and media strategist Wes Anderson. "Just like (Bush aide Karl) Rove was wrong with that 'permanent majority' talk, Democrats have to remember that the pendulum is always swinging." So how will it swing in 2016? Is the path to 270 electoral votes so fixed that one side just can't win? Does Obama's unpopularity carry over into the next race for the White House? Or will an increasingly diverse electorate pick a Democrat for a third consecutive presidential election for the first time since Franklin Roosevelt and Harry Truman won five straight elections from 1932 to 1948?
Again, it's still early. Neither party has even begun the primary process. Still, when it comes to the so-called Obama coalition, Democrats are going to realize that their coalition and Obama's are two separate things.

Posted by William A. Jacobson on December 27, 2014 7 Comments
Today is the funeral for fallen New York Police Department Officer Rafael Ramos, executed along with officer Wenjian Liu. Live Video and Twitter feeds below, as well as our own select updates. [Funeral over, video feeds removed]

Posted by Amy Miller on December 27, 2014 1 Comment
UPDATE: You can watch the funeral here. Today, New York City will lay to rest Officer Rafael Ramos, one of the victims of last week's brutal assassination that took the lives of Ramos and his partner, Officer Wenjian Liu. More than 20,000 officers from all over the country, along with Vice President Joe Biden, are expected to attend. Yesterday's wake drew thousands of people, some of whom waited hours outside the church to honor Ramos' life and sacrifice:
Throughout the day, mourners from all corners of New York City — friends and strangers alike — came to pay their respects to “a humble man” willing to help in any capacity, as a statement posted on the Christ Tabernacle website described him. “He had an infectious smile,” said the Rev. Ralph Castillo, one of the church’s 18 pastors. “When I think of Ralph [sic], I think of his smile and his consistency. He didn’t have to be there. This is something he chose to do. He was faithful and consistent.” A group of about 15 mourners, some carrying a single white rose, had already lined up by the church’s entrance before noon, waiting to go in for the viewing, which began at 2 p.m. A giant Christmas wreath with festive ornaments decorated the front of the brick building. “Today we weep with the Ramos family, the New York Police Department and the nation as we mourn the loss of our dear brother,” Mr. Castillo said. “He was a gift to our church.”
Outside of the church, however, tensions ran high, with protesters showing support for the family while calling for the resignation of New York City Mayor Bill di Blasio. Officers who attended took measures to protect themselves from the threat of violence.

Posted by Amy Miller on December 26, 2014 27 Comments
Greg Abbott won a decisive victory in Texas' recent gubernatorial election, but he'll have some big shoes to fill come January. Outgoing Governor Rick Perry may be stepping down from his post at the Texas capitol, but he's nowhere near close to making his exit from the national stage. In addition to forming a PAC, courting conservatives, and brushing up on his foreign policy credibility, he's taking time to detail the hard work and conservative policies that were passed under his watch that converged to create "The Texas Miracle." From Fox News:
"Governor Perry established in the national mind that Texas is the place for jobs and freedom where entrepreneurship thrives and the American dream is alive," said Cal Jillson, SMU political science professor and author of "Lone Star Tarnished." Indeed, Texas under Perry has outpaced any other state on the employment front, creating three out of 10 of all U.S. jobs. Forbes magazine recently named Texas as the leading state for economic climate and future job growth while Chief Executive Magazine readers have named Texas as the number one state to do business for 10 years running. Over 100 of America's top companies -- including AT&T, Fluor, Dell and ExxonMobil -- are based in Texas. Toyota, Apple, Charles Schwab and SpaceX are expanding operations in the state. Perry has crisscrossed the globe with missionary zeal, from Beijing to London, touting a flourishing Texas brand that looks a shade brighter against the national economy. Texas, in turn, is America's top exporting state averaging more than $1 billion in exports every working day. "I was always intrigued with economic development and an economic climate that frees people," Perry said. "It was innate, something I derived from watching people I admired like my father, and it wasn't something I read or studied in school."

Posted by Leslie Eastman on December 26, 2014 9 Comments
I got the gift of karma last night, after returning home from a wonderful Christmas dinner with the in-laws. Why karma?  Because  one of the articles about infectious diseases I missed covering noted that this year's flu shot was ineffective against the most dominant strain of the virus:
The flu vaccine may not be very effective this winter, according to U.S. health officials who worry this may lead to more serious illnesses and deaths. Flu season has begun to ramp up, and officials say the vaccine does not protect well against the dominant strain seen most commonly so far this year. That strain tends to cause more deaths and hospitalizations, especially in the elderly. Though we cannot predict what will happen the rest of this flu season, it's possible we may have a season that's more severe than most," said Dr. Tom Frieden, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, at a news conference Thursday. CDC officials think the vaccine should provide some protection and still are urging people to get vaccinated. But it probably won't be as good as if the vaccine strain was a match.
So I came down with a case of that dominant strain last night, as I had received the 2014 vaccine in September. The nausea is so awful that it cannot be described with words -- it must be experienced. We spend millions of our taxpayer dollars for professionals to asses which strains to feature in the annual vaccine mixture. Yet, once again, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention fail at its primary job task.

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on December 26, 2014 1 Comment
This story came across my Twitter feed the other day and my eyes might have leaked a little bit. And by a little bit, I mean I cried like a baby because this story is just that kind of story. Brandon Finnigan over at Ace of Spades shared this incredible story about a hardship he and his wife endured recently. Finnigan began:

Life is Beautiful

On Twitter a few nights back, I shared a very trying experience the wife and I endured this year. I want to share it here, expand on it, and direct it, a bit, at a very specific reader.

Posted by David Gerstman on December 26, 2014 3 Comments
Prof. Jaccobson blogged yesterday about the tribulations of Israeli Member of Knesset Haneen Zoabi, who is privileged and free to serve in the legislature of the country that she reviles. But there's another Zoabi, in fact a distant cousin, who also has been in the news. Mohammad Zoabi. He's a teenager who describes himself as a "A Proud Israeli Arab Muslim Zionist." Mohammad first came to my attention when he released the video below, a plea to return Eyal Yifrach, Gil-ad Shaar and Naftali Fraenkel, in English, Hebrew and Arabic.

Posted by William A. Jacobson on December 26, 2014 7 Comments
Via The NY Daily News:
The weeping widow, her eyes spilling tears and her heart filled with anguish, stood unsteadily where her hero husband was executed. Pei Xia Chen, with her slain spouse’s parents and six other relatives, made a heartbreaking pilgrimage on Wednesday to the Brooklyn block that became a weekend killing ground. Gut-wrenching moans of disbelief broke the eerie silence in Bedford-Stuyvesant before Chen knelt at the street memorial honoring her spouse Wenjian Liu, 32, and his NYPD partner Officer Rafael Ramos, 40.
The son of Officer Rafael Ramos also spoke to the press:

Posted by William A. Jacobson on December 26, 2014 11 Comments
Ballotpedia lists the following Democrats (in alphabetical order) as potential 2016 presidential candidates: Joe Biden Hillary Clinton Andrew Cuomo Kirsten Gillibrand Amy Klobuchar Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Brian Schweitzer Party Mark Warner Elizabeth Warren Jim Webb My goodness.  Not much diversity there.  Actually, none. Mostly old white people, not that there's anything wrong with that, but considering the years of demagoguery from Democrats, it certainly is ironic. Republicans, by contrast have a diverse field, including four likely contenders who are "diverse" but eschew presenting themselves as hyphenated Americans or playing racial politics. Politico reports, Race and the race:
Bobby Jindal is Indian-American, but you’ll never hear him describe himself that way. Marco Rubio insists he’s an “American of Hispanic descent.” And Ted Cruz “certainly” identifies as Hispanic, but he didn’t run for office as “the Hispanic guy.” These Republican lawmakers, along with African-American conservative favorite Ben Carson, look poised to make the 2016 GOP presidential field the party’s most diverse ever. They are all mulling over White House runs as the GOP continues to struggle with minority voters and as racial tensions over police conduct have captivated the nation.

Posted by Amy Miller on December 26, 2014 0 Comments
Former President George H.W. Bush spent Christmas this year in the hospital after experiencing shortness of breath. From the Associated Press:
Family spokesman Jim McGrath said Thursday evening that the 90-year-old Bush remained at Houston Methodist Hospital. McGrath said Bush "had another terrific day and is in great spirits." He said Bush was visited by his wife, Barbara Bush, as well as son Neil Bush. Bush was hospitalized Tuesday night in what was reported as a precaution.
President Bush spent two months in the hospital over Christmas two years ago after a nasty bout with Bronchitis, but aides are emphasizing that this stay is just a precaution:
"The Bush family certainly appreciates all your prayers, love and concern. This is not two years ago. It's a hiccup. He should come home in a few days," Jean Becker, Bush's chief of staff, said in a statement in reaction to the outpouring of concern for him.
A Parkinson's diagnosis has made him dependent on a wheelchair or scooter to get around, but that hasn't stopped him from living an active an interesting life since leaving the White House. He went skydiving at 85...

Posted by Casey Breznick on December 26, 2014 4 Comments
It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas 1998. Back in 1998, there was a resurgent US economy while Europe, Japan, and emerging markets floundered. The dollar strengthened and oil prices plummeted. We also had an embattled second-term Democratic president with Republicans in control of both houses of Congress. But most reminiscent of all is what is going on with Russia. In August of 1998, Russia defaulted on its government debts after a crushing devaluation of the ruble. The 1998 Russian Financial Crisis was caused by both external shocks—the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis and plummeting oil prices—and domestic woes. Quite similarly, the ruble has halved in value this year (the worst performing currency of the year), due to the plummet in oil prices. Oil and gas account for half of the Russian state’s budget and 70% of the country’s exports. Now, with oil nowhere in sight of returning to $100+ highs, the country’s ability to repay foreign debts is coming under serious doubt. Standard & Poor’s recently said there is a 50% chance it would downgrade Russian bonds to “junk” status. Even Peru and Botswana have higher credit ratings than that. Last week the Russian Central Bank hiked its baseline rate to a whopping 17% in order to restore confidence in the Russian economy. However, the drastic move has been to no avail, as ruble sellers continue to outnumber buyers. http://youtu.be/jvEPcxVfJPs?t=18s But as history has shown, the Russian Bear, especially under the auspices of strong leaders, doesn't go down without a fight.

Posted by William A. Jacobson on December 25, 2014 5 Comments
Haneen Zoabi hates Israel. She encourages its enemies. She spews anti-Israel propaganda with reckless abandon. The kidnappers and murderers of three Israeli teens last spring were not terrorists, according to her. Haneen Zoabi also is a member of the Israeli parliament, the Knesset, as part of Arab nationalist party Balad. There have been moves to ban Zoabi from the Knesset, and her disruptive behavior within the Knesset has resulted in a temporary ban. But she's still there, and running again in the upcoming March 2015 elections. There is no such thing as a Haneen Zoabi in reverse in most countries, and certainly in Arab countries, where Zoabi would be in jail or worse. In the U.S., a Zoabi-equivalent probably wouldn't make it into Congress because of our dual-party system. No, in the U.S. a Zoabi would have to settle for an endowed professorship at Columbia, or presidency of the American Studies Association. Danny Danon, a popular "right wing" Israeli politician, knows the public doesn't like Zoabi, and is running an animated campaign ad mocking her for supporting Israeli's enemies in order to boost his own election prospects. Sorry, don't have version with English subtitles, but you probably can figure it out: Now Zoabi is suing. Seriously.
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