Polling  (Page 1)

Operation Demoralize Is in Full Swing

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Posted by  ▪  Monday, November 7, 2016 at 7:00pm 11/7/2016 at 7:00pm
real-clear-electoral-map-no-toss-ups-11-7-2016-w-border

This race is too close to call.

A shift in any state could change the outcome. The Real Clear Politics No-Toss Ups map (Featured Image) has Hillary winning by a few electoral points.

She could win by a few, lose by a few, or win by a lot. It’s that volatile.

Overall, she’s up...

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Pre-Final Presidential Debate – state of the race

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Posted by  ▪  Wednesday, October 19, 2016 at 7:10pm 10/19/2016 at 7:10pm
trump-behind-clinton-second-debate

As we approach the final presidential debate later tonight, the polling looks grim for Donald Trump.

In a sense, Trump never really recovered from his post Democratic convention fall, when his public feud with the Khan family wasted what had been a Trump rally after the Republican convention.

There was a rebound for a...

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Analysis: Dems unlikely to retake House even if Trump polling collapses further

http://cookpolitical.com/story/10084
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Posted by  ▪  Friday, October 14, 2016 at 2:30pm 10/14/2016 at 2:30pm
http://cookpolitical.com/story/10084

There are varying levels of horrible results for conservatives in the upcoming election.

Based on current polling, it certainly looks like Hillary will be the next president. You can argue whether that is better or worse than the alternative for conservatives, but there is no serious argument that losing either the House...

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Pew poll: 44% of American households contain firearms

https://youtu.be/N5i5S2nEXwE
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Posted by  ▪  Monday, August 29, 2016 at 10:00am 8/29/2016 at 10:00am
https://youtu.be/N5i5S2nEXwE

One of my favorite articles not published at LI this year is the New York Times piece flummoxed by and bemoaning the fact that Obama’s calls for gun control go nowhere and serve only to increase gun sales.

Here’s an excerpt:

More guns were sold...

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Hibernating Hillary Running Out the Clock

Hillary Clinton
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Posted by  ▪  Wednesday, August 24, 2016 at 7:00pm 8/24/2016 at 7:00pm
Hillary Clinton

The current polling gives little rational reason to think Donald Trump will win in November.

No matter how you slice it — national 4-way, national head-to-head, battleground states, electoral college, unfavorability — Trump is deeply underwater, as this polling average chart at Real Clear Politics today shows:

The trends are not any better...

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Polls Paint Increasingly Dire Picture for Trump

Trump AIPAC Smile
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Posted by  ▪  Tuesday, August 16, 2016 at 7:30pm 8/16/2016 at 7:30pm
Trump AIPAC Smile

Electoral success is looking bleak for Republican nominee Donald Trump and his supporters.

Among the conventional poll-reading wisdom is that trends, not individual polls, provide for a more accurate overview.

Despite his headline popularity and ability to pull around 30% in primary elections, Trump has never polled consistently well against Democratic contender...

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Fox News Poll Shows Hillary With Double Digit Lead Over Trump

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Posted by  ▪  Wednesday, August 3, 2016 at 7:00pm 8/3/2016 at 7:00pm
fox news poll hillary clinton donald trump khan

You see, this is the problem with having a campaign predicated on the fact that you’re leading in all the polls — when polling data turns unfavorable, your alleged mandate dissipates.

A new poll released by Fox News shows Hillary with a double-digit lead over The Donald. Hillary might me the...

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Polls Show Voters Do Not Trust Hillary, Now Tied With Trump

Hillary Clinton Dem Debate 4-14-2016
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Posted by  ▪  Thursday, July 14, 2016 at 5:00pm 7/14/2016 at 5:00pm
Hillary Clinton Dem Debate 4-14-2016

Democrat presumptive presidential candidate Hillary Clinton’s poll numbers have slipped after she escaped charges for her emails at the State Department.

A New York Times/CBS News poll shows that 67% of voters do not find Clinton “honest and trustworthy.” In a month, she lost her 6% lead over Trump in the CBS...

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13% of Voters Prefer Apocalyptic Meteor Over Hillary or Trump

https://twitter.com/TheFix/status/678688616931921921
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Posted by  ▪  Friday, July 1, 2016 at 5:30pm 7/1/2016 at 5:30pm
https://twitter.com/TheFix/status/678688616931921921

New polling data released from Public Policy Polling indicated 13% or respondents would rather the Earth suffer a collision with a giant meteor before voting for Hillary or Trump. Apparently, “Giant Meteor” is more popular than any independent candidate actually running for president.

Giant Meteor was a particular favorite among independent voters,...

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Not-Quite-Super Republican Tuesday

Republican Candidates as of 3-8-2016
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Posted by  ▪  Tuesday, March 8, 2016 at 1:00pm 3/8/2016 at 1:00pm
Republican Candidates as of 3-8-2016

Here’s the primary/caucus schedule today, followed by Real Clear politics poll averages:

Mississippi · 40 delegates

Last poll closes at 8:00 PM ET

There’s only one recent (2/29) poll, showing Trump ahead by 24 points.  Fair to assume Trump will win, but I doubt it’s by 24 points.

Michigan · 59 delegates

Last poll closes at...

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Cruz surges in key state polling, but national polling conflicting

Ted Cruz on Hannity_with Mark Steyn
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Posted by  ▪  Wednesday, December 23, 2015 at 8:30am 12/23/2015 at 8:30am
Ted Cruz on Hannity_with Mark Steyn

Whether it’s an Overton Window effect, an example of Boyd’s “OODA Loop,” or something else, Ted Cruz is enjoying a surge in both state and national polls.

According to the latest Quinnipiac poll, Cruz is now only four points behind the current Republican front-runner, Donald Trump.

CNN reports:

Donald Trump’s lead over Ted Cruz...

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Jeb Bush Fails to Move the Needle in Post-Debate Poll

Jeb Bush Trump Jerk
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Posted by  ▪  Sunday, December 20, 2015 at 11:00am 12/20/2015 at 11:00am
Jeb Bush Trump Jerk

Despite acting a bit more aggressive in the last Republican debate, Jeb Bush has been unable to move his poll numbers up and break away from the pack.

Dana Blanton reports at

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Polls: Trump Regains Lead, Carson Loses Ground, Cruz Surges

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Posted by  ▪  Sunday, November 22, 2015 at 12:00pm 11/22/2015 at 12:00pm
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In light of the terror attack in Paris and (presumably) Obama’s weak performance against ISIS and bizarrely petulant performance in Turkey, terrorism now rivals the economy as the single most important issue to American voters.

ABCNews reports:

Terrorism suddenly rivals the economy as the single most important issue to Americans in the 2016...

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Rasmussen: War on Terror Concerns at 11 Year High

ISIS Libya
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Posted by  ▪  Monday, October 12, 2015 at 1:00pm 10/12/2015 at 1:00pm
ISIS Libya

According to a Rasmussen poll released Monday morning, more voters than ever believe terrorists have an advantage over the United States and her allies.

Conducted from October 4-5, the poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters, asking two questions:

1) Who is winning the War on Terrorism—the United States and its allies or the terrorists?

2)...

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New Polls Have Carson Surging While Trump Falls

Is Ben Carson ready for prime time?
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Posted by  ▪  Sunday, October 4, 2015 at 10:00am 10/4/2015 at 10:00am
Is Ben Carson ready for prime time?

A poll released by Investor’s Business Daily Friday shows Dr. Ben Carson sailing past Donald Trump. While Trump’s numbers are steadily declining, he remains one of three contenders pulling in doubly digits in IBD’s poll, the third being Senator Rubio.

IBD writes:

The nationwide survey found that 24% of Republicans back Carson, compared...

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CNBC debate rules could be bad news for some big names

CNN debate main stage trump fiorina top candidates hugh hewitt donald trump
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Posted by  ▪  Wednesday, September 30, 2015 at 7:45pm 9/30/2015 at 7:45pm
CNN debate main stage trump fiorina top candidates hugh hewitt donald trump

Republican Presidential candidates wanting a podium on the debate main stage will have to first qualify. CNBC set a 3% polling floor for the upcoming October 28th presidential debate.

There will be an undercard debate, but that too has a polling floor. To qualify for the kiddie table, candid...

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The Media’s Cycle of Churning Through Candidates, Trump Edition

how the media churns and burns through candidates
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Posted by  ▪  Friday, September 18, 2015 at 4:25pm 9/18/2015 at 4:25pm
how the media churns and burns through candidates

For everything that might be wrong with large media outlets, there’s no escaping the control they wield over election cycles. They possess the power to crush White House dreams or make them a reality.

Which is part of why headlines like this are hilarious:

Yesterday, we discussed a report released by the ...

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