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NYT/CBS Poll: Tea Party favorability surges since government shutdown

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Posted by  ▪  Friday, February 28, 2014 at 12:10pm
Vet in wheelchair WWII Memorial

At this point, I’m used to support for the Tea Party being mischaracterized in news coverage of polling. 

The negative always is the focus, and actual analysis of the persistency of support hovering between 1-in-4 and 1-in-5 Americans is ignored:

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X marks the spot

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Posted by  ▪  Friday, December 6, 2013 at 6:49pm
Generic Poll 12-6-2013 close up

At which Democrats should start freaking out.

The polling just keeps getting worse and worse.  A couple of months ago the generic congressional election polling was having Democrats and Establishment Republicans (yes, there is such a thing) ready to wrap the death of the Republican Party around the necks of Ted Cruz and Mike Lee.

Good times,...

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Obama approval cliff dives among poor Hispanics and Non-Whites

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Posted by  ▪  Thursday, December 5, 2013 at 3:15pm
Red Bull Cliff Diving

Yesterday we noted the precipitous drop in support for Obama among one of his stool legs, Harvard Survey: Obama and Obamacare push Millennials support off cliff

It gets worse.

There is a certain poetic justice in the latest Gallup poll of presidential support.  Obama’s support has dropped the most among poor Hispanics and...

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Harvard Survey: Obama and Obamacare push Millennials support off cliff

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Posted by  ▪  Wednesday, December 4, 2013 at 10:33am
Harvard Survey Approval Obamacare Close Up

Havard’s Institute of Politics just released a devastating study showing a massive drop in support among Millennials for Obama and Obamacare.

Bottom line is that Millennials don’t like Republicans, but for the first time they don’t like Obama and Democrats almost as much.

Here is the key finding in the Executive Summary (at...

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Hidden gem in ABC/WaPo Poll: Strong Tea Party support

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Posted by  ▪  Tuesday, November 19, 2013 at 10:51am
O

We have addressed many times recently the misleading claim that support for the Tea Party Movement was at historic lows or reflected the near-end of the movement:

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Republican poll chasers and the madness of crowds

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Posted by  ▪  Tuesday, October 15, 2013 at 4:05pm
Pew Party Favorability 10-15-2013

Another conversation I had with myself on Twitter.

Last time it was about The Republican Brand.  This time it’s about the lunacy of Republicans — stoked by the media — panicking over polling last week showing Republicans dropping like a stone into a mountain crevice.

Today Pew released its polling, and it found essentially...

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CBS News buries poll result showing Tea Party support rising

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Posted by  ▪  Saturday, September 28, 2013 at 12:45pm
WaPo Tea Party Support Rising

I told you just a couple of days ago that the Gallup headline of a decline in Tea Party popularity was misleading.

The misleading headline, ignoring the details of the poll, was picked up far and wide, Congrats @Gallup for inspiring these 5 misleading anti-Tea Party headlines.

The Washington Post yesterday, however, revealed...

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Congrats @Gallup for inspiring these 5 misleading anti-Tea Party headlines

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Posted by  ▪  Thursday, September 26, 2013 at 2:30pm
The Week - Gallup Tea Party 9-26-2013

I covered earlier the negative spin Gallup put on its recent Tea Party polling.  What showed a stable support/opposition over the last two years — including a drop in opposition – was spun as a negative only by comparison to three years ago.

Gallup could have titled its report “No real change...

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Opposition to Tea Party drops to near-record low

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Posted by  ▪  Thursday, September 26, 2013 at 9:24am
Gallup Tea Party Support Chart 9-26-2013

That’s not the headline you will see, of course.

Instead, Gallup headlines its story about its most recent polling to emphasize the negative about Tea Party support, Tea Party Support Dwindles to Near-Record Low.

But it you look at Gallups chart, it shows a 2% drop in support for...

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PPP sat on poll showing Colorado recall strength

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Posted by  ▪  Wednesday, September 11, 2013 at 1:40pm

I’ll have to defer to pollsters as to whether this is consistent with professional polling protocol.

PPP has admitted that it deliberately did not release a poll showing that Colorado State Senator Angela Giron was likely to lose the recall election by a wide margin:

We did a poll last weekend in Colorado...

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Politico poll showing “plurality support” for gay marriage also shows majority opposition

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Guest Post by William M. Briggs  ▪  Thursday, December 13, 2012 at 10:21am

As Professor Jacobson pointed out the other day, there is an effort already underway to game the refs at the Supreme Court, similar to in the Obamacare case, by creating a media and political narrative that the Court’s legitimacy would be threatened if it were...

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Wishcasting the 2012 Presidential Election

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Guest Post by William M. Briggs  ▪  Tuesday, November 27, 2012 at 4:13pm

Meteorologists who examine their prognosticative skill often notice a curious phenomena. 

Forecasts for snow on December Twenty-fourths and Twenty-fifths have higher probabilities than forecasts for Twenty-sixths or Twenty-sevenths.  This disparity is inverted on the Fourth of July, where probabilities for rain are lower than for the Fifth.  Surely nature doesn’t have a...

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Our numbers guys can beat up your numbers guys

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Posted by  ▪  Friday, November 2, 2012 at 9:41am

I have received a good reaction to my post, If Nate Silver cannot be wrong, how can he be right?, in which I call non-statistical BS to Nate Silvermania.

Dan McLaughlin, On Polling Models, Skewed & Unskewed examines Nate Silvermania, and links to me for a non-numbers reason, which is good because I’m...

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Push Operation Demoralize aside

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Posted by  ▪  Thursday, November 1, 2012 at 12:13pm

Averaging turnout models over the last four 2-year cycles, gets different results in the polling than the doom being peddled by Operation Demoralize.

I don’t know if it’s right or wrong, but given that Operation Demoralize is in full swing, anything that keeps spirits up for the final push through the finish...

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