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2016 Republican Primary Tag

Following last Thursday's debate, Ted Cruz's support has more than doubled according to an NBC poll.  Matthew Burke reports:
In a new NBC News/Survey Monkey poll released on Sunday, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, a constitutional conservative, catapulted into second place overall, increasing by a whopping 7% over the prior poll, putting him at 13% overall, more than doubling his prior support of 6%, according to the poll. Cruz, a former national collegiate debate champion, soared despite having his debate performance largely put on mute mode by major media outlets, including FOX News.
Although Trump still leads in this poll, this is a very nice bump for Cruz.  This news comes on the tail of a debate performance, particularly involving ISIS, that Frank Luntz calls "great news for Cruz." Watch:

Scott Walker appeared on CBS This Morning Friday to talk about his campaign and how he did in the debate. Oddly enough, as soon as Walker started talking about Hillary Clinton, Norah O'Donnell wanted to shift the conversation to Donald Trump and obviously wanted Walker to answer for Trump's words and actions. Walker handled it well and tried to steer the conversation back to his campaign but O'Donnell persisted. She clearly wanted Walker to comment on Trump. Partial transcript via NewsBusters:
Rather than accept Walker’s rejection of Trump’s language, the CBS host continued to press the governor over Trump’s comments and demanded that he “denounce” his opponent:
You know that your own party did a full dissection of what happened in the last presidential campaign about how the Republican Party does among women and how they do among minorities. If you have the leading candidate in the Republican Party saying those things about women, when it was the largest gender gap in history in the last presidential election, can you denounce those comments here today, or is it just part of a freewheeling debate?
Here's the full video:

During an interview with CNN Friday night, GOP front-runner Donald Trump indicated he was less than impressed with Fox News host Megyn Kelly. Kelly was one of a panel of debate moderators in the first Republican Presidential Primary debate hosted by Fox News Thursday night. From CNN:
In an interview with Don Lemon on "CNN Tonight," Trump on Friday accused Fox of asking "vicious," unfair questions at the debate and called Kelly "overrated." Kelly had pressed Trump about misogynistic, sexist comments in his past. On CNN, Trump called the questions "ridiculous," called her "off-base," and said, "You could see there was blood coming out of her eyes. Blood coming out of her wherever." Trump told Lemon that he didn't know whether he'd participate in a future Fox debate. "I might not, to be honest," he said. "I didn't think they were fair." Earlier in the day, Trump had blasted Kelly on Twitter and wrote that Fox News "should be ashamed."
http://youtu.be/M28z9y4yT6Y

We're here in Atlanta for Red State's annual conference. Governor Perry shared a heartwarming story or as Perry called it, "a sad story but a good story." Perry recalled the time a grandmother of a fallen marine reached out to him. She was hoping Governor Perry would be able to assist in having her grandson's service black lab, Eli, returned to the family. Eli's, "the only connection the family has," remembered Perry. "He had this black lab that he idolized named Eli. Right before he deployed he told his mom that when he finished up this tour, he was going to return to Orange Grove and raise puppies with Eli. He got killed by small arms fire."

In previewing the Republican debate, I said the Debate is All about The Donald:
I’m going to sit back and enjoy the show. Whatever will be will be.
I didn't watch the 5 p.m. debate, but the punditry is unanimous that Carly Fiorina was the clear winner, and it was her Breakout Moment. The other candidates in that grouping should just drop out. I did watch the 9 p.m. main event, and it was a weird experience. Here are my impressions:

Fox News Moderators: 

At times I felt the aggressive attacks on candidates were inappropriate, and much of the show was the moderators using oppo-research type facts to get a reaction. Trump was the focus of most of this. That's not the role of moderators. BUT, when viewed in its entirety over the two hours, I think the moderators achieved a good result. What could have been a snoozer was interesting, candidates got to address their weaknesses, there was some engagement with each other, and we came away with a sorting out of the field. So, while it was uncomfortable to watch at times, the end seems to have justified the means.

The Donald:

This is becoming the present-day Rorschach test. I thought he did horribly. Trump did not appear comfortable in the setting. Many of his one-liners that work so well when he is alone and has a camera close up didn't work. He was petulant, shallow and thin-skinned. BUT, if online voting is any indication, he didn't hurt himself with supporters.

In the first of the two Republican debates yesterday, the lower polling candidates squared off in a so-called "Happy Hour" debate. All of the candidates did well but Carly Fiorina truly stood out and her performance might be just the jolt her campaign needed. The consensus among many in media was that Carly Fiorina won the debate. CNN made note of the tweets declaring Fiorina the winner:

Everyone still with us? That first debate wasn't just a debate--it was a firehose of information, talking points, and (most importantly) soundbites. The night is young, though, and we're ready to see how the top ten candidates vying for the Republican presidential nomination measure up. Here's who you should expect to see on the stage at 8:50 p.m. ET:
  • Donald Trump
  • Jeb Bush
  • Scott Walker
  • Mike Huckabee
  • Ben Carson
  • Ted Cruz
  • Marco Rubio
  • Rand Paul
  • John Kasich
  • Chris Christie
To watch the debate online, click here. (You'll need a cable authentication to stream live from Fox.) You can follow the discussion on Twitter here: Round 2 begins in 3...2...

It's time, people. Debate season is upon us, and tonight, we get double the pleasure of watching seventeen Republican candidates face off in two debates. This post will cover the first debate; these participants didn't poll in the top ten of all GOP candidates, but many are saying that this slate could provide a more substantive discussion than the prime time group. Here's who you should expect to see onstage for the first debate:
  • Rick Perry
  • Lindsey Graham
  • Rick Santorum
  • Bobby Jindal
  • Carly Fiorina
  • George Pataki
  • Jim Gilmore
To watch the debate online, click here. (You'll need a cable authentication to stream live from Fox.) You can follow the discussion on Twitter here: Alright...let's do this! Let the live blog begin in 3...2... ***

Remember Bobby Jindal? He may have not made it into tonight's Fox News debate as a top-tier candidate, but he hasn't gone anywhere. In fact, he's become the next in a line of Republican candidates who have taken to more liberal outlets for a shot at becoming the next political viral sensation. This time, we find our candidate wading into the progressive playground that is Buzzfeed for a political push-up challenge. In a heated contest, he takes on his top political foes: taxes, Obamacare, hyphenated-Americans, and his notorious State of the Union response speech. It's a little hard to explain without a dry fit tee and yoga mat. Just watch: Everybody sweaty and amped for President Jindal? I have to say, this may be the goofiest of all the "viral" spots to hit thusfar, but I admire his guts. It takes a brave man to run satire on his own presidential campaign.

Tomorrow, ten Republican candidates will stand on a stage in Cleveland, Ohio for the inaugural debate of the 2016 cycle. Personally, I'm preparing myself for a lot of nonsense in the hours leading up to the main event. So far, our slate of candidates has not held back on lobbing personal and political attacks; the national limelight isn't likely to temper either the candidates' desire to throw punches, or voters' expectations that those punches will be thrown. I've written quite a bit about how candidates are changing tactics both online and in the field in an effort to make themselves more approachable and "human" to voters; some candidates naturally come across as approachable, while others have needed a little help getting started. Scott Walker is (I believe, you may disagree) one of those lucky few gifted with the ability to connect with a broad sample of American voters. His latest social media blip takes that approachability to the next level with a simple request that almost completely divorces itself from politics, and forces his competitors into the yet undiscovered world of---brace yourselves---personal relationships. Scott Walker wants to know which candidate each of them admire the most---and why. Take a look at his own response:

PREPARE YOURSELVES, READERS---for debate season is nigh, and Fox News has just released the names of the ten lucky men who will be participating in the first Republican primary debate of the 2016 cycle. My use of the word "men" is justifiable here---Carly Fiorina didn't make the cut. Here's the field:
  • Donald Trump
  • Jeb Bush
  • Scott Walker
  • Mike Huckabee
  • Ben Carson
  • Ted Cruz
  • Marco Rubio
  • Rand Paul
  • John Kasich
  • Chris Christie
Questions? Concerns? Let loose in the comments! This is going to be one barn burner of a debate.

Ever wondered how to make bacon without a frying pan or oven? Well wonder no more. Ted Cruz demonstrates how easy it is to cook bacon with a machine gun. "Few things I enjoy more than on weekends, cooking breakfast with the family," said Cruz. "Of course in Texas, we cook bacon a little differently than most folks."

On August 6 Fox News will host the first Republican debate. The top ten in an aggregation of polls will make it on stage, with the seven who don't make the cut relogated to a panel earlier in the evening. The names who appear certain to make it on stage are Trump, Bush, Walker, Carson, Huckabee, Cruz, Rubio and Paul, with Kasich and Christie just above the cut, though that could change (via NY Times): http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/04/upshot/2016-presidential-election-who-gets-into-the-republican-debate-rounding-could-decide.html?_r=0&abt=0002&abg=1 Just below the cut is Perry, with Jindal, Santorum, Fiorina, Pataki and Graham clearly not making it onto the stage. : http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/04/upshot/2016-presidential-election-who-gets-into-the-republican-debate-rounding-could-decide.html?_r=0&abt=0002&abg=1 But let's face it, it's all about The Donald. As I predicted when he first announced, Trump announcement like “throwing a hand grenade into the room”:
“Donald Trump entering the race is pretty much like somebody throwing a hand grenade into the room. He is going to get attention, he’s probably going to cause some casualties, and he is going to absorb a lot of the oxygen in the room.”
Granted, that was an easy call a prophetic and brilliant call, but I should have seen The Donald phenomenon coming long before his official announcement.

While Jeb's Telemundo interview this week has been getting attention for his statements about amnesty immigration reform, there is another interesting tidbit in there about Iran that sheds some light on his push back against Mike Huckabee's comments evoking the Holocaust. Personally, I'm not surprised that Jeb is promising action on immigration reform to Spanish-speaking audiences; he promises the same thing to English-speaking audiences and has been quite defiant about maintaining his position throughout the primary. Here's a transcript (translated from Spanish) of part of the immigration portion of the interview:
José Díaz-Balart: How do we resolve the problem of 11 million undocumented and what do you think is the formula for the border to be secured and deal with those those people who are here and contribute to the economy with their hard work? Jeb Bush: Look, first of all, to arrive here legally has to be easier than to arrive here illegally. So one must have a commitment with a border, and JUST as important, there’s 40 percent of the undocumented that arrived  here legally, that have a legal visa and they overstayed  And they don’t go back. We must have a plan to solve that. It’s not the most complicated thing in our country, we can do it. We can accomplish it. But for the 11 million people, I believe that they come from out of the shadows they get a work permit, they pay taxes naturally, they pay small fine they, learn English. They don’t get benefits from the federal government, but they come out of the shadows. And they obtain a legal status after some time. I believe that’s the place where one could obtain consensus to solve this problem.

In the summer of 2011, the GOP candidate sitting on top of the polls was Texas Governor Rick Perry. By October of 2011, it was Herman Cain who was leading the polls with Mitt Romney in second. Rick Perry went into a freefall after his "Oops" moment at one of the what seemed like 1000 GOP debates. Two candidates in the summer of 2011 were languishing at the bottom of the polls: Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich. Both of whom went on to win primary season races. Santorum won the Iowa caucuses, and Gingrich won the South Carolina primary. As we head into the first GOP debate and into the fall when people will really start to pay attention to the race, it will be interesting to see where the polls start to move. For the last several weeks there have been several tiers of candidates according to the numbers:
  • Top Tier Donald Trump Jeb Bush Scott Walker
  • Second Tier Marco Rubio Mike Huckabee Rand Paul Ben Carson Ted Cruz
  • Third Tier Rick Perry Chris Christie John Kasich Bobby Jindal Rick Santorum Carly Fiorina George Pataki
It's within that bottom tier where I think there may be 2-3 candidates who may be doing much better in the late fall than they are here in late summer.

File this under: Things that would be hilarious if they weren't real life and cross-reference under Not The Onion. As if Hillary Clinton using a personal email account and home brewed server while serving as Secretary of State weren't inept enough, Clinton's private attorney is running around with a thumb drive full of classified info. You read that correctly -- a thumb drive. flashbam Mind you, Clinton has sworn time, and time again that no classified information was transmitted via her personal email account. Which, as we've noted repeatedly begs the question -- how the hell did she do her job?! In any case, the Inspector General debunked the whole "I did not send classified information from my email account" claim. And now we learn that her attorney has a pocket-full of classified info.