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2016 Republican Primary Tag

The CNN Debate just ended, and I have only one clear impression -- Donald Trump has so completely emasculated Jeb Bush that this may be Jeb's last hurrah. Before getting to that, I don't think there was a clear winner. Trump was Trump; I don't think he gained or lost support based on this performance. He reiterated his pledge not to run independent, clearly and unequivocally. Rubio was very good ... except that for the first time people (particularly Rand Paul) hit him over the head hard on the Gang of 8 bill. I thought Cruz had some strong moments, but I just don't know that this will catapult him. Of the others, the only one who made any impression was Carly Fiorina, when she went after Hillary; but she played the gender card pretty hard, so I don't know if that turned people off. Now the big impression. Donald Trump has mastered the art of making Jeb look small. Even when Jeb scores a substantive point about Trump, Jeb lessens his own stature for the fight after Trump mocks him.

Howdy and thanks so much for joining us tonight! CLICK HERE TO SEE THE LIVE REACTIONS FROM THE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE CNN, host of tonight's Republican debate, has a lifestream available to here. If you'd prefer to listen, Salem Radio Network is airing the debate here. Welcome to the main stage! Tonight’s debate will feature…
  • Carly Fiorina
  • Jeb Bush
  • Donald Trump
  • Ben Carson
  • Marco Rubio
  • Ted Cruz
  • Rand Paul
  • John Kasich
  • Chris Christie

Watch real time debate reaction:

To providing a wide array of real time reactions, we've included a few different Twitter feeds for your entertainment. You'll find those beneath.

Both Donald Trump and Ben Carson have stated that if the GOP attempts to manipulate the primary process they will run as independents. Trump tweeted: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/674317248803307520 According to the Columbus Dispatch, March is the latest that they can launch independent runs.
State filing deadlines would give the two Republicans until about March to launch independent or third-party campaigns, experts said. That would give a well-financed campaign enough time to gather sufficient signatures on petitions so the candidate could appear on the ballot in every state.

I noted the other night that Donald Trump may have opened the "Overton Window" for Ted Cruz, by making Cruz acceptable to both Republican establishment types and general election voters who otherwise would have considered him Cruz conservative. I noted the fear of a liberal who wrote:
Donald Trump looks like the warm-up act. Whoever follows him from the Republican party looks reasonable (and sane) by comparison.
How will the mainstream media react if Cruz's current poll surge holds and he looks like a viable challenger to Trump? We know the answer, because there's a history here, one I documented back in August 2013. And ironically, it's a theme Trump appears to be taking up in a recent attack on Cruz. I called it the crazying of Ted Cruz, focusing on a Daily Beast article trying to portray Cruz as "creepy":
A lifetime of achievement that would normally be heralded by liberals if achieved by a liberal Hispanic, devolves into creepiness on the slimmest of pretexts. This is all part of the crazying of Ted Cruz by liberal publications like the Daily Beast. It doesn’t matter what the substance is, they just want to associate the word “creepy” with Ted Cruz in the minds of the public, many of whom don’t read past the headline.

With Ted Cruz soaring to a 10pt lead in Iowa, Chris Christie gaining momentum in New Hampshire, Ben Carson losing some ground, Marco Rubio gaining in some polls and holding steady in others, Jeb Bush teetering along, and Donald Trump still dominating in most state and national polls, Tuesday's CNN debate should be interesting. Nine candidates will take the stage and be positioned according to their current standing in national polls. CNN reports:

Nine candidates will appear in prime-time Tuesday night for the final Republican presidential primary debate of 2015, a critical event that will help shape the contest heading into the Iowa caucuses.

While in Paris last month, Obama was petulant and dismissive in criticizing Republicans who "pop off" about his nearly imperceptible ISIS strategy. He said, "if folks want to pop off and have opinions about what they think they would do, present a specific plan. If they think that somehow their advisers are better than my chairman of my Joint Chiefs of Staff and the folks who are actually on the ground, I want to meet them. " Setting aside the fact that Obama is not listening to his own advisors on the subject of ISIS and even required that intel about ISIS be modified to meet the WH narrative, this is a rhetorical strategy that has worked for him in other cases such as ObamaCare.  It's so effective for him that many Americans actually believe that Republicans have offered no ideas for health care reform should ObamaCare be repealed or simply collapse.  Obama hopes that the same thing will happen regarding ISIS, but so far at least, that does not seem to be the case. Instead, not only is the press pushing Obama on ISIS in the wake first of Paris and then—though less so—after the San Bernardino terror attack, but Republicans do have plans for defeating ISIS.  One such plan was released this week by Ted Cruz.

I noticed this Facebook comment on the page of a local Ithaca liberal Democrat, on a post criticizing Donald Trump:
Donald Trump looks like the warm-up act. Whoever follows him from the Republican party looks reasonable (and sane) by comparison.
The commenter didn't use the term, but she was describing how Trump has moved The Overton Window. The Overton Window has been described as follows:
The Overton window is a political theory that refers to the range (or window) of policies that the public will accept. The idea is that any policy falling outside the Overton window is out of step with public opinion and the current political climate, and formulated to try and shift the Overton window in a different direction, or to expand it to be wider.
Has Trump moved the Overton Window? That's a theory advanced the other day by David French at National Review (h/t Instapundit):

According to polling rules set for Republican primary debates, Rand Paul may find himself demoted to the lower tier while Christie comes back to the main stage next Tuesday. Steven Shepard reports at Politico:
Rand Paul could be booted from main debate stage Rand Paul, once considered the main contender for the anti-establishment GOP vote, will likely be pushed off the debate stage next week when CNN announces the lineup for the fifth Republican forum. Chris Christie, however, has clawed back in the polling thanks to a rebound in New Hampshire, virtually ensuring he will be promoted to the main event in Las Vegas on Tuesday, according to POLITICO’s calculations...

You don't have to like Republican Presidential hopeful Ben Carson to like his campaign's new web ad. "These Hands" began airing Tuesday and unlike contentious political ads, it utilizes positive messaging.

Monday, Presidential hopeful Donald Trump called for, "complete and total shutdown of Muslims entering the United States." Republican leadership spoke out against Trump's remarks Tuesday. "I do not comment on what's going on in the presidential election; I will take an exception today," said Speaker Paul Ryan. "This is not conservatism. What was proposed yesterday is not what this party stands for and more importantly, it's not what this country stands for."

Carly Fiorina was on The O'Reilly Factor last night and was asked by Bill O'Reilly how she would deal with the ISIS problem as president. Fiorina began by reacting to President Obama's lackluster Sunday night speech and pointed out the insanity of pushing climate change and gun control as a response to terrorism. She then got into specifics such as the sharing of intelligence. She pointed out that the Patriot Act is 14 years old which equals generations in terms of technology. She suggested retaking ground from ISIS, increasing our bombing activity, working with allies in the region and more. Bill also asked her about Donald Trump's suggestion of a temporary ban on Muslim immigration, with which she strongly disagrees. Watch the whole segment below:

Presidential candidate Donald Trump sucked up all the media oxygen yet again on Monday when his campaign released a statement calling for "a total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States until our country's representatives can figure out what is going on." Many on Twitter assumed at first that the statement was a hoax, but it was tweeted by Trump senior adviser Dan Scavino, and then posted on Trump's website and retweeted by Trump himself, who called it "a very important policy statement on the extraordinary influx of hatred & danger coming into our country." Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski confirmed to the Associated Press that the intention was for the ban to apply to "everybody," including both immigrants and tourists. The Hill asked Trump spokeswoman Hope Hicks if this would include Muslim-American citizens who were currently abroad, Hicks replied by email: "Mr. Trump says 'everyone.'" https://twitter.com/JonahNRO/status/673987103232012289 Trump also retweeted several tweets from David Brody with the Christian Broadcasting Network that described his proposed Muslim ban as an act of "bravery" that would likely "give him a boost with evangelicals."

Last week, Republican Presidential hopeful, Marco Rubio, opened up about his faith, what it means to doubt one's faith, and where he turns in times of tumult and challenge. His candid response caught the attention of many Republican Christians. That was until this video surfaced. At an event organized by American Renewal Project in Iowa, Sen. Rubio shared the gospel with a large audience of pastors. Like his previous answers on the matter, Rubio spoke at length of peace. Not "hippy peace" as he called it, but the "peace that we are ordered to." For five minutes forget about politics, forget about your personal candidate preferences and just... listen.

Last week,  Quinnipiac reported poll results for Iowa that showed Ted Cruz surging to 23%, only 2 points behind Donald Trump. The Wall Street Journal reported:
A new Quinnipiac University poll of likely Republican caucus goers showed Mr. Cruz with 23%, behind only New York real estate developer Donald Trump, with 25%. That is more than double Mr. Cruz’s showing of 10% in the university’s October poll. Mr. Trump gained five points from October.
Today, Rich Lowry, editor of the National Review, tweeted the following: https://twitter.com/RichLowry/status/673236631231533056 More Twitter responses:

Whether he's engaging in effective dialog with Canadian actresses or American radicals, defending religious liberty, calling out climate change hysterics, taking on the progressive media, challenging GOP leadership, or playfully pushing back against Obama's gun control agenda, Ted Cruz has a way of tackling, head on and without fear, issues that either trip up other Republicans or that they avoid like the plague. This week, Cruz countered the Democrat accusation that the GOP is engaged in a "war on women" by asserting that the GOP is not "the condom police." CNN reports:
Iowans at a town hall waded into awkward territory on Monday evening as Ted Cruz tackled a question on contraceptives.

Jeb's campaign has, by almost all accounts, been a disappointment to donors, to GOP primary voters, to Jeb's campaign team, and to pretty much everyone who cared in the first place. Despite this, he continues to talk as if he is the front runner he never really was and hope that at some point others will believe it, too.  Part of this strategy appears to be relying on the questionable claim that this election cycle mirrors that of 2012. According to the Herald-Tribune, Jeb claims that the current front runners will fall . . . just as Herman Cain did in the 2012 cycle.  They report:
Jeb Bush cited the rise and fall of 2012 GOP presidential hopeful Herman Cain as he sought to reassure supporters at a Longboat Key fundraiser Monday that their faith in him is well placed. By noting that Cain led in the polls at this point in 2012 only to flame out, Bush implied that current GOP front-runners Donald Trump and Ben Carson could follow the same path.