Image 01 Image 03

2016 Republican Primary Tag

Welcome to our pre-debate open thread. I'll be updating periodically until the festivities begin. Refresh your browser frequently for the latest updates... if you dare.

Tonight's debate

Back on the main stage: Sen. Rand Paul Joining the undercard for the second time ever: Jim Gilmore Throwing his own party: Donald Trump Our coverage of the debate will begin just before 9:00 ET. No undercard coverage from us this time. What will a Trumpless debate look like? It will have much better hair! Hey-o. Tip your waitresses. I'll be here all week. Seriously. I will be here all week. But seriously, with Trump gone, we have a few possible scenarios:

Enough has been written about how Donald Trump is breaking or rewriting or ignoring all the rules. Or operating in 3 dimensions while everyone else is operating in 2 dimensions. I see something in Trump, though, that is very familiar to me. It's the concept of creating chaos in your opponent's house as a revolutionary tactic.  Or to put it another way, being a disrupter. The now deceased Abbie Hoffman and Trump seemingly have little in common. While Hoffman rejected capitalism Trump embraces it. Yet they both employed the same tactic. Hoffman tried to create chaos in the economic system, but never really succeeded. Trump has succeeded in creating utter chaos in everyone else's house (Republican Party, Fox News, other candidates, basically anyone who crosses his path).   That's only half the equation, though. It's not just enough to create chaos in others. The second part is to create community within your own house. Hoffman never was good at that; in business Trump has been good at building his own house. I first wrote about this just after Obama took office, using a passage from Hoffman's book, Steal This Book. (Text here) Here's my post, from February 9, 2009, “Steal This Country”:

For the first time ever, primary voters will be required to furnish identification before voting in New Hampshire's primary elections February 9. First implemented in New Hampshire's 2012 general election cycle, the goal is to crack down on voter fraud.

This is one of the more unusual campaign closing statements. Mike Huckabee in the past has had the pulse of Iowa. But he's been relegated to the undercard debates recently. So here is a rather "interesting" closing video. It focuses more on the Democrats than his Republican competitors. [Apparently singer Adele objected to the use of her song, even though sung by someone else, so the ad was taken down.] What gives?

Ted Cruz is intelligent, articulate, and well-prepared to defend and protect the Constitution as the next president of the United States.  He entered the national spotlight during his contentious 2012 run for the Senate, but it's worth taking a look at his resume because it highlights long-standing and staunch support of conservative principles.

Conservative Credentials: Pre-Senate Life and Career

Prior to winning that senate seat with conservative grassroots and TEA Party support and becoming the first Hispanic to serve as a senator from Texas, Cruz was also the first Hispanic—and the longest-serving person in Texas history—to hold the office of Solicitor General of Texas. Cruz joined the George W. Bush campaign in 1999 as a domestic policy adviser and advised then-candidate and Governor Bush on a wide range of policy and legal matters, including civil justice, criminal justice, constitutional law, immigration, and government reform. During the Bush administration, Cruz served as associate deputy attorney general at the DOJ and as a policy adviser on the Federal Trade Commission.  While at the FTC, Cruz was an avid free-market crusader—an extension of his high school participation in the Houston-based Free Market Education Foundation, a program Cruz entered at the age of 13.

The dispute between Donald Trump and Fox News has escalated rapidly today. It went from Trump was thinking about refusing to appear, to Trump likely not appearing, to the campaign saying Trump "definitely" would not appear. Megyn Kelly, the focus of Trump's ire, just announced on her show that Trump is out based on conversations Carl Cameron had with the Trump campaign. The Trump campaign apparently has released a statement to that effect. Trump Statement Fox News Debate (added) Fox News issued the following statement:

UPDATE - Everything changed in the three hours since this post. Trump campaign says he’s out of Fox News Debate (Reader Poll) Fox News just announced its stage line up for the debate Thursday night. Donald Trump is center stage. Fox News Debate 1-28-2016 Line Up Donald Trump is upset that Megyn Kelly is one of the moderators of Thursday's Fox News debate. Trump has been complaining for days, demanding she be removed. Fox News just said No. Now Trump is upping the ante, posting this Instagram video complaining of Kelly's bias:

The same minds that brought you Ted Cruz's machine gun bacon, Lindsey Graham experimenting with the best ways to destroy a cell phone after Donald Trump gave his phone number to a raucous crowd, and Ann Romney's tips for on being a freakin' awesome grandma, bring you "How To Get Revenge with a Football" by Marco Rubio. Cameos include Sen. Cory Gardner, CNN Commentator S.E. Cupp, Rep. Trey Gowdy, Dr. Ben Carson, WMAL's Larry O'Connor, and more.

Florida Senator Marco Rubio would be a strong conservative choice for the Republican nomination for President. In this post I will present you with the facts about his strengths and his conservative record. And yes, I'll also address the two big criticisms, experience and immigration, and lay out why they are strengths for him. Rubio's a naturally gifted speaker with a quick mind, unlikely to make a fool of himself on the debate stage. A 44 year old Cuban-American with a beautiful young family and a compelling life story, he provides a strong and positive contrast to the cranky grandparents' club of Democratic candidates. Throughout the campaign, polls have shown that Rubio is the GOP's strongest competition against Hillary Clinton -- he's the "electable conservative." He's shown an ability to respond to negative attacks with wit and humor, a crucial skill in what will most certainly be a bare knuckles brawl of an election. The contrast between the Rubio campaign's lighthearted self-mocking in #RubioCrimeSpree and the ongoing drip-drip-drip of news stories about classified information on Clinton's email server could not be sharper.

I'm not sure if this was meant to be an oppo-dump or just funny, but it's certainly the latter. A video posted to a YouTube account called "Young Ted Cruz" Saturday shows an 18-year-old Sen. Cruz sitting next to a fountain at Second Baptist School in Houston, Texas talking about his life goals. “Aspirations? Is that like sweat on my butt?” joked Cruz. Teen Cruz had big hopes and dreams like one day starring in a "teen tit film." But if that didn't work out, he'd be content to "take over the world, world domination, you know -- rule everything."

By now, word has gotten around that Donald Trump has said quite a few things---either in the past or quite recently---indicating support for many liberal positions and politicians. As a result, the arguments have gone back and forth between his supporters and his opponents as to what Trump's actual belief system might be, and what he might be willing and/or able to do if he were to hold the most powerful office in the land. But however one wishes to label him on the political spectrum, it is instructive to watch the following video. It features a sampling of clips of Trump making some of these controversial statements. As you might imagine, the video was compiled by a new super PAC founded by Katie Packer, described here as "a veteran Republican strategist." Please watch the montage and see what you think:

A recent Politico article talks about how Trump might defeat Clinton. The article's lede focuses on potential support among black voters:
If Donald Trump becomes the next president of the United States, there will be plenty of surprises along the way. One of the biggest will be the help he gets from black voters. According to Republican pollsters and Trump’s allies, the GOP poll-leader — who has been dogged by accusations of racism, most recently for tweeting out a chart that exaggerated the share of murders committed by blacks — is poised to out-perform with this demographic group in a general-election matchup with Hillary Clinton.
However, although it quotes pollsters, the article doesn't link to any actual polls that show Trump's support from black voters. Nor do those pollsters mention any poll numbers that would support the contention that black voters support Trump.

From the beginning of his campaign, Jeb Bush has tried to portray himself as his own man who can run on his own merits. His campaign logo of Jeb! even lacks the Bush name. Yet as time grows short and the polls fail to rise, he is increasingly turning to members of his family for support and using the last name which comes with it. Yahoo News reports:

Speaking to a crowd in Las Vegas Thursday night, Donald Trump said he'd be part of the establishment if elected; a bit odd considering he's spent the majority of his campaign portraying himself as the ultimate political outsider. But standard rules don't apply this election cycle. Apparently. The abbreviated version of Trump's remarks:

National Review has a special issue Against Donald Trump, with columns by 22 people, most of whom are familiar conservative writers and media personalities. I skimmed a few of the columns and they make the case persuasively that Trump is not a conservative. You know the arguments already. He's for activist big government, a populist with no conservative ideological compass, and is not what he purports to be even on his core issue of immigration (where he may be to the left of Marco Rubio in reality). National Review Conservatives Against Trump Cover

The Republican emeritus leadership seems to be breaking for Donald Trump over Ted Cruz as the lesser of two evils.  They reason that Trump is less extreme, less likely to cause collateral damage to Republicans in Congressional and state races, and more electable. They're also probably wrong, at least about the electability question.  Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com writes:
It’s hard to say exactly how well (or poorly) Trump might fare as the Republican nominee. Partisanship is strong enough in the U.S. that even some of his most ardent detractors in the GOP would come around to support him were he the Republican candidate. Trump has some cunning political instincts, and might not hesitate to shift back to the center if he won the GOP nomination. A recession or a terror attack later this year could work in his favor. But Trump would start at a disadvantage: Most Americans just really don’t like the guy.

Anyone who a year ago picked Donald Trump and Ted Cruz to be the two leading Republican candidates heading into the Iowa Caucuses either (i) is a liar, or (ii) should invest heavily in the lottery because they are beyond lucky. Certainly, the powers that be in the Republican Party were not expecting it. Here's what a Fox News poll looked like in January 2015: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2015/01/29/fox-news-poll-voters-believe-romney-clinton-remain-top-picks-for-2016-believe/ The pollster didn't even bother to ask about Trump. And Cruz was in low single digits. Now Trump is on top in the national polls and Cruz is in second place. In Iowa, three polls released today show Cruz leading, a dead heat, and Trump leading.

The seemingly non-stop attack ads being run by Jeb's SuperPAC, Right to Rise USA, are causing deep concern among Jeb supporters, the NY Times reports:
When Jeb Bush and his allies began helping the “super PAC” supporting him raise more than $100 million last year, his bid for the Republican nomination seemed like a safe bet. But as Mr. Bush’s campaign continues to lag, his backers are increasingly turning their frustrations over his foundering candidacy on the group, Right to Rise, and its inability to influence the race. Some donors quietly worry about how the cash-rich group is spending its money, confounded by how few tangible results the tens of millions it has pumped into the race so far have yielded. Others have expressed dismay with negative ads Right to Rise has run ....