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2014 Election Tag

Posted by Mike LaChance on October 12, 2014 8 Comments
The last time we checked in with former White House spokesman Jay Carney he was predicting doom for Democrats in the midterms. It looks like he hasn't changed his mind. It's also interesting to note that Carney is acknowledging the fact that so many Democrats are distancing themselves from Obama. From the Washington Free Beacon:
Jay Carney: ‘No Question’ It Will Be A Good Year For Republicans, Bad Year For Democrats “The Democratic candidates have to thread this needle very carefully,” Carney said. “It is true that when you have an unpopular president of your party, you don’t want to be associated with him.” Carney acknowledged that a number of candidates are jumping the Obama ship and going to great lengths to distance themselves from the president, but warned them against “going too far.” “Look, it’s not a good dynamic for Democrats out there,” Carney said. “The goal has to be, in this cycle, to run local and state races and not have their races be nationalized. Because if they’re nationalized, they’re going to be hurt by the overall perception of president Obama right now.”
Here's Jay Carney on Don Lemon's CNN show: Carney may be onto something.

Posted by Amy Miller on October 11, 2014 30 Comments
On November 4, Colorado residents will have to decide whether or not to change their criminal code to include an "unborn human being" in the definition of a "person." Proponents of the measure, dubbed "Amendment 67," say that the goal of the initiative is to protect pregnant women, but opponents say it's nothing more than a veiled attempt to ban abortion in Colorado. This isn't Colorado conservatives' first attempt at adding personhood protections for the unborn to state law; similar initiatives have failed twice before. However, this amendment works differently in that it changes its approach in defining the amendment's scope of protection. colorado personhood Via the Washington Post:
Earlier versions defined a fetus as a person from the moment of fertilization, or from the moment of biological development. In both cases, abortion rights activists convinced voters to reject the measures, which they said would have limited a woman’s right to choose.

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on October 08, 2014 26 Comments
Rock the Vote released a new ad today with a song by Lil Jon featuring Lena Dunham, Whoopi Goldberg, Natasha Lyonne, Fred Armisen, E.J. Johnson, Darren Criss, Sophia Bush, Ireland Baldwin, Devendra Banhart, Ioanna Gika, and Gabriel Valenciano. Geared towards young people, Rock the Vote has long been successful at utilizing pop culture to engage younger demographics in the political process. Started in 1990 by a Virgin Record exec, Rock the Vote is supposed to be a non-profit, partisan organization. Whether or not you agree with their politics (which tend leftward), they're good at making voting and even politics look rad. Check out their latest ad:

Posted by Mike LaChance on October 07, 2014 22 Comments
We're a month away from the midterm election that could hand control of the Senate to Republicans. As with any election, there are lots of moving parts and no one is absolutely sure what's going to happen. Even so, Alexander Bolton of The Hill is reporting that panicked Democrats are already blaming each other for an expected loss:
Democrats start to point fingers Democrats are starting to play the blame game as they face the possibility of losing the Senate in November. Tempers are running high a month out from Election Day, with polls showing Democratic candidates trailing in the crucial battleground states that will decide whether control of Congress flips to Republicans. The behind-the-scenes tension broke into the open last week when former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle (D-S.D.) questioned Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s (D-Nev.) decision not to endorse Democrat Rick Weiland in South Dakota’s Senate race. Pro-immigrant advocacy groups, meanwhile, are saying Democrats should not blame them if Latino voters don’t turn up to the polls on Election Day. They say President Obama made a tactical blunder by postponing an executive order easing deportations.

Posted by Amy Miller on October 06, 2014 5 Comments
According to a recent Gallup poll, voters will be sending a message to President Obama---and it may not bode well for Democrats. Out of the just over 1000 registered voters surveyed, 32% of respondents said that their vote in the midterms would serve as a message of opposition to Obama; in contrast, 20% of those surveyed said that their vote would serve as a message of support. Gallup's writeup of the poll explains why this is significant in terms of Republicans' chances in November:
Gallup first asked this question in 1998, the year Republicans were moving toward impeaching President Bill Clinton for lying about his affair with a White House intern. That year, when Clinton's approval rating was 63%, more voters said their choice of candidate in the fall election would be made to show support rather than opposition to Clinton. Democrats had a strong showing in that fall's elections, gaining seats in the House of Representatives, bucking the historical pattern by which the president's party loses seats in Congress in midterm elections. In the next midterm election, voters by an even larger margin said their vote would be made to support rather than oppose President George W. Bush, who had a 66% approval rating at the time of the elections. These attitudes were consistent with the eventual outcome, as Republicans increased their majority in the House and gained majority control of the Senate.
Gallup Registered Voters Message 2014 Election October That's the shot; now here's the chaser: out of registered voters polled, 58% Republicans said that their vote would act as a message of opposition to Obama, while only 38% of Democrats polled said their vote would act as a message of support.

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on October 04, 2014 17 Comments
A video published earlier this month now making the rounds on the internet is drawing all kinds of mockery, and deservedly so. On YouTube, the video is summarized as follows:
It seems like it's okay to say mean things about someone just because they're Republican. That isn't right. Before you write another mean post about Republicans, remember Republicans are people, too.
Former Romney ad guy, Vinny Minchillo, is the brains behind the terrible ad. Minchillo told Fox News, "he’s trying to “catch a wave” of interest by launching “Republicans Are People, Too” shortly before the midterm elections – though he’s not advocating for any particular candidates. I appreciate the idea: debunking the lame, white guy Republican stereotype. In fact, it's something I wrote about in a 2012 election post-mortem:

Posted by Mike LaChance on October 03, 2014 27 Comments
Some Democrats are running for election or re-election this November but all Democrats are running as fast as they can from Obama. For his part, the president isn't doing them any favors. In a speech at Northwestern University yesterday, Obama tied himself and his deeply unpopular policies directly to the Democratic Party and the 2014 elections. Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post reported:
28 words that Democrats really wish President Obama didn’t say today Here are the four sentences that will draw all of the attention (they come more than two thirds of the way through the speech): "I am not on the ballot this fall. Michelle’s pretty happy about that. But make no mistake: these policies are on the ballot. Every single one of them." Boil those four sentences down even further and here's what you are left with: "Make no mistake: these policies are on the ballot. Every single one of them." You can imagine Sen. Mark Pryor of Arkansas or Sen. Kay Hagan in North Carolina or Alison Lundergan Grimes in Kentucky grimacing when they heard those 28 words. That trio has spent much of the campaign insisting that this election is NOT about Barack Obama, that it is instead about a choice between themselves and their opponents.

Posted by Mike LaChance on October 02, 2014 45 Comments
No one is sure what's going to happen in November but many experts are predicting that Republicans will win control of the Senate. Nancy Pelosi, though, isn't worried, she's looking forward to taking back both Houses of Congress in 2016, while maintaining the presidency to boot. Rebecca Shabad of The Hill reports:
Pelosi: Dems will take Congress, WH in '16 House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) predicted a Democratic sweep in 2016. If Republicans keep the House in November, Pelosi said they wouldn’t hold their majority for long. “Their days are numbered. I know that in two years, I know we’ll have a Democratic Congress and a Democratic president,” she told reporters at her weekly press conference. “I’d like it to be in two months,” she added. Asked if she was conceding that Republicans would hold the House in November’s midterms, Pelosi insisted, “No, I’m not." “I think we’ll do okay,” said Pelosi, who was headed to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee to discuss the elections. Pelosi compared November’s midterms to the Olympics, in which the final result can come down to a matter of inches or seconds. “Five weeks from today, we can have no regrets,” she said.
Nothing is set in stone and Republicans shouldn't be overconfident but Red State editor Erick Erickson sees one sign that shows Democrats are very worried.

Posted by Amy Miller on October 01, 2014 9 Comments
A recent Marquette University Law School poll shows that Democrats could be in for a real struggle come November. Among likely voters, Scott Walker has 5 points on Mary Burke in the Wisconsin Governor's race, with only 2.5% of those polled saying they'd vote for "someone else." Just over half of likely voters hold an unfavorable opinion of the way Barack Obama is doing his job; in contrast, 52% approve of Scott Walker's performance as governor. This recent poll is casting doubt the affect of Democrats' recent efforts to paint Walker in a bad light:
Wolf Blitzer confronted DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman-Schultz today over her recent comment that Governor Scott Walker is giving women “the back of his hand” with policies she believes are incredibly anti-woman. At a discussion on women’s issues weeks ago, Wasserman-Schultz had said, “Scott Walker has given women the back of his hand. I know that is stark. I know that is direct. But that is reality… What Republican tea party extremists like Scott Walker are doing is they are grabbing us by the hair and pulling us back. It is not going to happen on our watch.” Wasserman-Schultz had walked those comments back a bit, but Blitzer confronted her about it again today. She said, “I’ve already said that I chose the wrong words, but that shouldn’t distract from the fact that Scott Walker’s policies are terrible for women.”

Posted by Amy Miller on October 01, 2014 3 Comments
Is the NRCC's "Drive to 245" Republican-held House seats a pipe dream, or a realistic goal? GOP consultants and candidates hope to harness the momentum they've already gathered from Democrats' failure to lead on hot button issues to put more Republicans in Congress, but some strategists are skeptical in Republicans' ability to reach their goal. NRCC Chairman Greg Walden addressed the ambitious nature of the campaign, placing his confidence in the quality of the candidates the Committee has managed to field:
“This ambitious effort is going to take substantial resources and dedication given the commitment President Obama has made to taking out our Members,” Chairman Walden said. “But I’m confident that with so many outstanding recruits in districts all across the country, and with the wind at our backs, that we will continue to expand the playing field and rise to this challenge. If we do, maybe we can finally send Nancy Pelosi into retirement and back to San Francisco.”
Still, top campaign consultants are hesitant to guarantee an all-out coup:

Posted by Amy Miller on October 01, 2014 16 Comments
2014 is a crucial cycle for Republicans; for months, House and Senate candidates have focused on Democrats' failure of leadership in the White House and the Senate to pinpoint examples of how progressive policies have made life harder for Americans. Examples aren't enough, though. In order to flip the balance of power in Washington, Republicans need to hit voters where it hurts Democrats. Enter Elbert Guillory, a Louisiana State Senator and candidate for Lt. Governor in 2015 who famously switched to being a Republican. Guillory appears in a devastating video by Free At Last PAC:

Posted by William A. Jacobson on September 28, 2014 13 Comments
Someone who will be mortified that I am citing him asks this question:
DID ALTON NOLEN JUST WIN THE SENATE FOR THE GOP?
Good question, though I don't think the answer is correct:
.... So if what we're reading is accurate, I'd say the narrative is this: man with a rap sheet converts to Islam in prison -- where Islamic identity is, to some extent, like gang membership (as is white supremacism). He's not the most stable person and Internet calls to violence speak to him. But it's hard to know whether something else would have made him snap sooner or later.... However, the right is going to tell us between now and November that eight-year-old Central Americans surrendering to the Border Patrol equal a beheading by a guy born in Oklahoma who never got closer to a Middle Eastern battlefield than a high-speed Internet connection could take him -- and America, I fear, will believe them. Will the GOP win all the close Senate races as a result? If so, I won't be surprised.
I don't think the Oklahoma beheading in itself will have any impact on the elections. With multiple ISIS beheadings of Americans all over the news, and with tales of ethnic and religious cleansing, torture and rape on a massive scale common knowledge, the beheading factor already is baked into the electoral cake. Obama's policy towards radical Islam and foreign policy generally has failed. The Middle East is as big a mess as it has been in several decades, maybe ever. Our President just went to the U.N. and equated a disputed shooting in Ferguson, MO, with ISIS mass terror.  That's the problem. The problem is not the Oklahoma beheading, it's an out of touch President, a polarizing Attorney General who finally is resigning, and an administration which picks and chooses its outrage in divisive ways:

Posted by Amy Miller on September 21, 2014 13 Comments
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is worried. For the past year, Republican candidates have been campaigning to take back the Senate under the "Fire Reid" mantra, highlighting Reid's failure to run a cohesive body capable of actually passing legislation. Even now, with less than two months to go until the 2014 midterms, Reid is doing what he can to brush off criticism. Via Politico:
As he’s tightened his grip on the Senate and protected vulnerable Democrats from casting politically tough votes, furious Republicans have made the mantra “fire Reid” a rallying cry and major fundraising push ahead of the midterm elections. But in Reid’s mind, Republicans are training all their fire on a guy most voters barely even know. “I’m meaningless,” Reid, a three-decade Hill veteran and the most powerful Democrat in Congress, told POLITICO Thursday. “People in red states don’t even know who I am.”
I'll give Reid partial credit for this response---it is certain that there are a great deal of people out there who have no idea who Harry Reid is, or that Harry Reid exists at all. But when it comes to political messaging, that doesn't matter.

Posted by Mike LaChance on September 20, 2014 5 Comments
With the midterms approaching and Obama's approval rating in the gutter, vulnerable Democrats are avoiding any discussion of one particular subject. Obama. Colby Itkowitz of the Washington Post has the story:
These days, Democrats aren’t talking much about Obama in congressional speeches When President Obama took office in 2009, congressional Democrats were euphoric. With control of the House, Senate and the White House, and high public approval for their new party standard bearer, Democrats eagerly embraced Obama and all the long-awaited policy initiatives he’d surely help them achieve. In that first month, congressional Democrats mentioned Obama during floor speeches 200 or so more times than Republicans. In the next year and a half, the parties referred to the president at similar rates, sometimes with the Republicans having more to say, other times the Democrats. One can reasonably assume that when the Democrats speak of the president publicly it’s in a favorable way and when Republicans do it’s, well, not quite as glowing. As positive public opinion of Obama began to dip after his first year, the spread between how often Republicans and the Democrats invoked Obama grew wider. Put simply, the Democrats weren’t mentioning Obama by name nearly as much as Republicans.
How could this be?
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