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Author: New Neo

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New Neo

Neo is a writer with degrees in law and family therapy, who blogs at the new neo.

Posted by New Neo on April 05, 2016 5 Comments
Some of the Nigerian girls kidnapped by Boko Haram have been freed, but their vale of tears has not ended with their liberation. There are tragedies so deep, suffering so vast, that it's hard to know what to say in the face of them. Certainly it's hard to know what to do, even for those who try to help. These are young women and in many cases young girls who were initially subjected to the trauma of kidnapping. Then they were raped over and over again, sometimes by different men or sometimes by a particular man who maintained he was that girl's husband. They were kept prisoner, harangued, indoctrinated, and often became pregnant and bore the children of their captors. For them, even the process of being freed was devastating, violent, and sometimes resulted in the death of some of the captives during the melee. And now that they are free, they are further restricted---to special camps run by the Nigerian army---and ostracized from society.

Posted by New Neo on March 28, 2016 19 Comments
I cannot recall a campaign season even remotely like this one, where the majority of American voters dislike both frontrunners.  This was hinted at following the Florida primary and is confirmed by a recent CBS News/New York Times poll:
Compared to frontrunners in previous presidential primary races, Trump and Clinton's unfavorable ratings (57 percent and 52 percent respectively) are the highest in CBS News/New York Times Polls going back to 1984, when CBS began asking this question.

Posted by New Neo on March 19, 2016 10 Comments
Candidates of the so-called "right" or even so-called "far right" are gaining support all over Europe. Because Europe's political parties tend to be skewed somewhat to the left of ours, these terms don't mean exactly what they would in this country, but the trend is clear. Here's how an article from Vox describes the gathering strength of these parties (although it insists on labeling them "xenophobic," as though their attitude towards immigration is some sort of unjustified phobia):
Far-right parties like AfD are growing throughout Europe. Der Spiegel has a nice map on this, showing the countries where far-right parties have a presence in parliament (yellow dots) or are actually part of the government (red dots). It turns out the xenophobic far right has surged in countries as diverse as Sweden, the UK, the Netherlands, and Hungary:

Posted by New Neo on March 13, 2016 49 Comments
I've been trying to design a good primary system. Or at least a better one. The more I think about it, though, the harder creating a good design seems to be. The Founders didn't offer much guidance, because they didn't envision the party system in its present form, and the nomination process slowly evolved to what it is today. These would be my suggestions for changes in the Republican primaries: (1) Only Republicans vote. A voter's party has to be declared some fixed amount of time before the primary in each state. Each state can set the amount of time, but there would be a minimum amount of time they could not shorten. I'm open to suggestions on what that amount of time would be.

Posted by New Neo on March 02, 2016 41 Comments
Even before yesterday's Super Tuesday primaries, it seemed that Cruz and Rubio were locked in a game of Chicken, and it promised to be a bumpy ride. The same holds true now:
The game of chicken, also known as the hawk-dove game or snowdrift game, is an influential model of conflict for two players in game theory. The principle of the game is that while each player prefers not to yield to the other, the worst possible outcome occurs when both players do not yield. The name "chicken" has its origins in a game in which two drivers drive towards each other on a collision course: one must swerve, or both may die in the crash, but if one driver swerves and the other does not, the one who swerved will be called a "chicken," meaning a coward.
Although there are five players now left in the GOP primary, one is dominant (Trump) and the two second-place candidates have been trading leads (Cruz and Rubio), with the other two (Kasich and Carson) very far behind. Back when the game featured far more players, the GOP race seemed a variation of the Tragedy of the Commons:

Posted by New Neo on February 27, 2016 61 Comments
On Wednesday Mitt Romney said some interesting things about Donald Trump and his tax returns, and they got picked up by a lot of news outlets and pundits, including Legal Insurrection. This is the way his remarks were generally reported:
He also called on the entire GOP field to release their tax returns. “I think there’s something there,” Romney said of Trump’s returns, “Either he’s not anywhere near as wealthy as he says he is, or he hasn’t been paying the kind of taxes we would expect him to pay,” Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, told Fox News’ Neil Cavuto on “Your World.”
Trump supporters felt that this was a low blow, and unsubstantiated as well. Also, coming from Romney---the guy many judge as having been insufficiently hard on Obama in 2012---it seemed uncharacteristic. As usual, though, it's always instructive to look at the transcript, and then to do a little digging into the background. In the full transcript Romney went into more detail than that. He went on to say:

Posted by New Neo on February 20, 2016 36 Comments
[See the UPDATE at the end of this post, which indicates that the information published in the Time article was most likely incorrect.] Donald Trump has said repeatedly that on the morning of 9/11 he watched the burning World Trade Center towers from his midtown Manhattan apartment. One controversial aspect of his claim is that he could see people jumping from the WTC as he watched from his apartment, which is four miles away. Some experts doubt that is feasible. But no one has disputed that Trump was in NY that morning. Here is Trump talking about 9/11, and mentioning that he was in his apartment at the time:

Posted by New Neo on February 18, 2016 13 Comments
This is potentially disturbing and seems to be part of a trend in Western Europe:
Following a report of a series of alleged offensive online posts relating to Syrian refugees living in Rothesay on Bute, Police Scotland confirmed on Tuesday that a 40-year-old man, understood to be from the Inverclyde area, had been arrested under the Communications Act... Following the arrest, Insp Ewan Wilson from Dunoon police office said: “I hope that the arrest of this individual sends a clear message that Police Scotland will not tolerate any form of activity which could incite hatred and provoke offensive comments on social media.”
In the United States, the only way this sort of arrest might be justified would be if the social media postings were used to specifically call for an imminent act of violence against refugees. That would be tantamount to enforcing our own very limited "incitement to riot" exceptions to our free speech policies.

Posted by New Neo on February 13, 2016 29 Comments
Let's set the scene: it's nine months to the election, about eleven till the inauguration. The GOP controls the Senate, but there's a Democratic president (in case you hadn't noticed). The Supreme Court has been split between four liberal and four conservative justices and one swing justice. One of the conservative justices dies, Justice Scalia. President Obama has the right to nominate his successor, and that choice will entirely change the Court's makeup to predictably liberal. And yet he needs the Republican Senate's advise and consent to do it. In an ideal world, justices would be "neutral" and the august and objective law would be the only guide they followed. But in the real world, justices each have a judicial attitude and philosophy that is reflected in decisions that tend to consistently and predictably lean to one side or other in their political consequences. Therefore no judge Obama nominates will be "neutral"; that person will be liberal if not leftist. That is a given.

Posted by New Neo on February 13, 2016 9 Comments
James Traub writes in Foreign Policy on the situation facing Sweden in its attempt to absorb the recent wave of Syrian/Iraqi/Afghan newcomers. At the outset of the article, the author may seem to be leaning towards blaming Europe for not being more magnanimous, and to be making a false analogy to WWII refugees---who may indeed have been from other countries, but who nevertheless were part of the same basic Judeo-Christian culture as the Swedes and held pretty much the same values. But that's actually not at all the direction in which the article ultimately goes, nor is it the way a lot of people in Sweden seem to be going at this point. And the trend may continue. But it's hard to talk about it in Sweden:
Diana Janse, a former diplomat and now the senior foreign policy advisor to the Moderate Party (which Swedes view as “conservative”), pointed out to me that some recent generations of Swedish refugees, including Somalis, had been notably unsuccessful joining the job market. How, she wondered, will the 10,000-20,000 young Afghan men who had entered Sweden as “unaccompanied minors” fare? How would they behave in the virtual absence of young Afghan women? But she could barely raise these questions in political debate. “We have this expression in Swedish, asiktskorridor,” she said. “It means ‘opinion corridor’ — the views you can’t move outside of.” Merely to ask whether Sweden could integrate Afghans today as it had Bosnians two decades before was to risk accusations of racism.

Posted by New Neo on February 06, 2016 16 Comments
Iowa and New Hampshire could hardly be more different in the composition of their Republican voting population. For example, evangelicals make up a huge percentage of the Iowa GOP voters---well over half. Although there are some evangelicals in New Hampshire, it's a lot smaller group than in Iowa:
Four years ago, just 22% of the state’s primary voters described themselves as evangelicals, well below the 57% in Iowa and the lowest rate among swing states. A 2013 Gallup poll ranked New Hampshire as the second least religious state in the country, behind Vermont, based on churchgoing and the importance of religion in daily life. “Candidates definitely tone things down regarding social issues when they come to the state,” said Stephen Scaer, a 52-year-old special-education teacher who helps run a prayer vigil outside a Planned Parenthood clinic in Manchester, N.H., and favors Republican Carly Fiorina. But, he said, “that’s simply pragmatic. If candidates want to win, they have to.”
The common wisdom on New Hampshire is that it's fiscally conservative and socially liberal; there are a lot of libertarians there, too ("Live Free or Die" is still alive in New Hampshire).

Posted by New Neo on January 31, 2016 216 Comments
As a large-scale real estate developer, Trump has sometimes sued in his efforts to use government to condemn houses belonging to people of modest means whose homes---which Trump considers insufficiently attractive---have stood near his big developments and have chosen to exercise their liberty by refusing to sell to him. That's one of the reasons Trump agrees 100% with the SCOTUS decision in Kelo (decided in 2005): he sees it making it easier for him to use government to compel the sale of a person's house even against that person's will. It's Trump's prerogative to approve of Kelo, and it's certainly understandable that someone in his line of work might have that point of view. He has every right to build his projects, and to try to buy the land of those with adjacent property.

Posted by New Neo on January 25, 2016 211 Comments
By now, word has gotten around that Donald Trump has said quite a few things---either in the past or quite recently---indicating support for many liberal positions and politicians. As a result, the arguments have gone back and forth between his supporters and his opponents as to what Trump's actual belief system might be, and what he might be willing and/or able to do if he were to hold the most powerful office in the land. But however one wishes to label him on the political spectrum, it is instructive to watch the following video. It features a sampling of clips of Trump making some of these controversial statements. As you might imagine, the video was compiled by a new super PAC founded by Katie Packer, described here as "a veteran Republican strategist." Please watch the montage and see what you think:

Posted by New Neo on January 23, 2016 39 Comments
A recent Politico article talks about how Trump might defeat Clinton. The article's lede focuses on potential support among black voters:
If Donald Trump becomes the next president of the United States, there will be plenty of surprises along the way. One of the biggest will be the help he gets from black voters. According to Republican pollsters and Trump’s allies, the GOP poll-leader — who has been dogged by accusations of racism, most recently for tweeting out a chart that exaggerated the share of murders committed by blacks — is poised to out-perform with this demographic group in a general-election matchup with Hillary Clinton.
However, although it quotes pollsters, the article doesn't link to any actual polls that show Trump's support from black voters. Nor do those pollsters mention any poll numbers that would support the contention that black voters support Trump.

Posted by New Neo on January 19, 2016 94 Comments
Professor Jacobson has opined on the question of whether Ted Cruz qualifies to be president as a "natural born citizen." The short answer is: he definitely does. However, as Professor Jacobson also indicated, that hasn't stopped Trump from attempting to foster doubts in voters’ minds about it. You can see the results in the increased amount of chatter about the issue---which is likely to have been exactly what Trump wanted when he put forward his oh-so-helpful suggestion that Ted Cruz could and should settle the "natural born citizen" question by going to federal court and seeking a declaratory judgment on the matter. So, why doesn't Cruz do what Trump has suggested, and put it to rest? The reason is that it is almost certain that Cruz couldn't get a court to rule on the issue. J. Christian Adams, who was in the Justice Department under George W. Bush, explains why:

Posted by New Neo on January 10, 2016 25 Comments
I realize that at this point polls don't matter too much, if at all. But they still interest me, because they're the best evidence we've got about public opinion. They can also tell us something about trends, and the trend for Hillary right now appears to be down. The newest national poll is from Fox, based on phone interviews that were conducted from Jan 4-7 and featuring 1006 registered voters, the vast majority of whom said they intend to vote. For Republican respondents the margin of error was 5%, which is rather large. For the entire survey, the margin of error was 3%, which is more typical but still worthy of note when the figures are close. It's very interesting to see what's happening with the projected head-to-head battles of some of the Republican leaders against Hillary Clinton. Mostly the results seem to preserve the patterns each candidate has already established for quite some time, with Rubio doing the best of all (a +9 lead, more than he's had before). Cruz is next with a +7 lead (also bigger than he had before), and Trump has a +3 lead.

Posted by New Neo on January 05, 2016 17 Comments
[UPDATE 1/6/2016: The answer to the question is yes, the bill will get to Obama's desk. The measure passed.] Remember that slogan, "repeal and replace"? There have actually been quite a few bills passed in the House to repeal Obamacare during the last couple of years, whether you've noticed them or not. Here's an article about it from this past October:
House Republicans pushed forward with another vote to roll back the Affordable Care Act on Friday, passing a bill that would repeal several major pillars of President Obama’s landmark 2010 law, including the requirement that Americans have health coverage. The legislation, the latest of more than 50 bills by congressional Republicans to repeal all or part of the health law, would also halt federal funding for Planned Parenthood. The 240-189 vote will not change anything in the health law or Planned Parenthood, however, as Obama has indicated he would veto the bill if it ever reaches his desk.
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