Last night we covered Republican David Jolly’s surprise win over Democrat Alex Sink.

Sink supposedly had it all — no contentious primary, more money, an unpopular Republican Governor and national Democratic support.

But even the best of Democratic candidates went down under the weight of Obamacare and big government.  Jolly hit those themes throughout his campaign.

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Why do I call it an Earthquake? Because that’s what I called Scott Brown’s unexpected victory in Massachusetts in January 2010. Brown caught lightning in a bottle, and that lightning was opposition to Obamacare in an off-year special election. It portended huge Republican and Tea Party gains the following November.

Adam Smith, Tampa Bay Times, David Jolly’s victory spells trouble for Democrats nationwide:

If I’m a Democratic House member in any competitive district in America or a Democratic incumbent senator up for re-election this year in a moderate-to-conservative state like North Carolina, Arkansas, Colorado, Alaska or Louisiana, I’m waking up more than a little anxious about what happened in Pinellas County on Tuesday.

In Alex Sink, Democrats had a better-funded, well-known nominee who ran a strong campaign against a little-known, second- or third-tier Republican who ran an often wobbly race in a district Barack Obama won twice. Outside Republican groups — much more so than the under-funded Jolly campaign — hung the Affordable Care Act and President Obama on Sink.

It worked.

Josh Kraushaar, National Journal, Why a Republican Wave in 2014 is Looking More Likely Now:

One of the key questions in the race was whether a “fix, don’t repeal” message would resonate with voters dissatisfied with the health care law but unwilling to give up on it. The verdict is incomplete, but it’s an early sign the depth of anger over Obamacare. Democrats are hoping for higher turnout in the November midterms, but core Democratic groups usually show up in lower numbers in off-year elections, too.

“Alex Sink followed the Democrat playbook to the tee and she couldn’t escape the weight of Obamacare in even an Obama district,” National Republican Congressional Committee Executive Director Liesl Hickey told National Journal.

An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll released last night shows that Obama is toxic:

Mr. Obama’s job approval ticked down to 41% in March from 43% in January, marking a new low. Some 54% disapproved of the job he is doing, matching a previous high from December, when the botched rollout of his signature health law played prominently in the news. The latest survey also showed the lowest-ever approval in Journal/NBC polling for Mr. Obama’s handling of foreign policy….

Americans surveyed in the poll said they were less inclined to support a candidate if the person had been endorsed by Mr. Obama or was a “solid supporter” of his administration. Approval of Mr. Obama is particularly weak in the South and Midwest, regions where Democrats could have a tough time defending Senate seats.

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Now Democrats are in panic.  Whether they should be is open to debate, but panic it is.