But I’m already sizing up Operation Counterweight Senate races for 2014.
Don’t look back is my motto.
Roll Call has a list of Senate races and assessments. Do any of them have serious primary challengers? Lindsay Graham seems like he could be vulnerable in theory, but I wonder if in practice. Susan Collins is the best we can do in Maine (I would have supported Olympia Snowe for the same reason had she not retired.)
“Likely Republican”
Georgia: Saxby Chambliss
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell
“Safe Republican”
Alabama: Jeff Sessions
Idaho: Jim Risch
Kansas: Pat Roberts
Mississippi: Thad Cochran
Nebraska: Mike Johanns
Maine: Susan Collins
Oklahoma: James M. Inhofe
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander
Texas: John Cornyn
Wyoming: Michael B. Enzi
On the Democratic side, there a a large number of vulnerable incumbents rated as “Toss-Ups”:
Alaska: Mark Begich
Arkansas: Mark Pryor
Louisiana: Mary L. Landrieu
North Carolina: Kay Hagan
South Dakota: Tim Johnson
West Virginia: Jay Rockefeller
And others rated only “Leans Democratic”:
Minnesota: Al Franken
Montana: Max Baucus
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen
My early thought is to focus on Republican primaries in Toss-up states, rather than challenging Republican incumbents.
Your thoughts?
Update: Charles sends along links to the 2014 Senate Preview at Daily Kos:
I’m guessing we lose Ark ,NC and SD, and maybe gain an Indy in Collins before 2014 – if things go badly we’ll lose Franken and Begich. Still enough of a cushion to put us at 50-52 if things go bad. After that we’d be talking about losing NH and CO, in which case you can probably kiss MT and LA goodbye in an anti-Dem wave like in 2010.
And also the assessment at “Citizens United” (not sure if it’s that Citizens United). You will find this Republican primary assessment of interest:
Kentucky-Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell may face a primary challenge from his right. There really isn’t a logical basis for this, but it may very well happen anyway. McConnell is a savvy politician with a massive war chest. He’s also avoided any votes that could be used against him. I don’t take a potential challenge very seriously, although a deal with President Obama to raise taxes could completely alter this outlook.Maine-Susan Collins is the last of the moderate New England Republicans. Her ideological twin Olympia Snowe retired last year. It is possible Collins will do the same. If she does not she will most likely face a primary challenge. The Maine Republican primary electorate is quite conservative, a serious challenger would stand a real chance. If Collins is not the Republican nominee Democrats will be strong favorites to win this seat.South Carolina-Lindsey Graham is the best candidate to be this cycle’s Richard Lugar. Graham is conservative, but not as conservative as you would expect a Senator from South Carolina to be. He has shown a willingness to work with Democrats on immigration, climate change, and other issues. He also voted to confirm both Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagen to the Supreme Court. Graham is a ripe target for a primary challenge and would probably be a slight underdog. Regardless of who the nominee is, this seat will be won by the Republicans.
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