With two weeks until Election Day, Operation Counterweight in Upstate New York is approaching its home stretch.

You may recall Bill Owens, who slipped into the spot in the 2009 special election in NY-21 after Republican Dede Scazzafava defected to the Democrats in order to spite third party conservative candidate Doug Hoffman.  Owens is being challenged by Matt Doheny.

Roll Call rates the race lean Democrat but there is no recent public polling. Please consider making a donation to Dohney to help with a last minute push.

As before, this analysis were prepared by a Cornell student who wishes to remain anonymous.

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In this rematch of the 2010 election, polling information has not been very positive for Matt Doheny. Siena’s early September polling (possibly distorted by a post-DNC bounce for Democrats) showed Doheny down 13 points to Owens.

Each campaign has released a poll suggesting positive movement in its direction. It’s unlikely that Owens is ahead by such a large margin, but Doheny clearly has a gap to close in the days remaining.

A large part of the reason Doheny has faced an uphill battle – in a race he lost very narrowly in 2010 – is the fact that a whopping 40 percent of the district is new. Owens has also maintained the edge in fundraising.

Regardless, Doheny has been running ads pointing out that Owens took a 2011 trip to Taiwan that broke House ethics rules. Owens’ ability to spin his voting inconsistencies drew the attention of another ad by Doheny’s campaign, which compares Owens to “flipping a coin,” a quite accurate criticism.