The polls have tended to show that Democrats in Wisconsin are in a much stronger position than last fall as a result of the budget repair bill controversy.

I’ve wondered whether voters minds really could have changed that quickly, and whether union intimidation tactics really have worked.  Has the majority really flipped to the side of big government public employee unions?

While not a scientific measure, a sample analysis of approximately 50,000 e-mails sent to Gov. Scott Walker shows — contrary to the polls — strong support for the Governor’s position, as reported by JSOnline:

Gov. Scott Walker was right when he said that emailers supported his stance on collective bargaining for public workers, a new analysis has found.

The analysis of the emails released by Walker Friday was done by the Wisconsin Center for Investigative Journalism.

Their computer-assisted study of the emails released through a court settlement found strong support among emailers for Walker’s budget repair proposal, which would repeal nearly all union bargaining for public workers. But the margin was closer when only emails from Wisconsin residents were considered, the analysis found.

The report also noted that public opinion polls don’t mesh with readers’ stances.

Of all e-mails, the split was 62-32 in support.  While JSOnline correctly characterized the support of Wisconsin e-mailers as “closer,” the support still was quite strongly in favor of the Governor:

“When the Center looked only at emails from Wisconsin, the margin was much slimmer, with 55 percent favoring his bill and 42 percent opposed.”

So whether you look nationally or only in Wisconsin, there is a very sizable majority in favor of the Governor.

Does this mean that the polls may not truly reflect both the electorate and the motivation of the respective sides?

We’ll find out as the recall efforts move forward.

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