PPP has just released its final poll of the Massachusetts Senate special election, and PPP gives Scott Brown a 5 point advantage, 51-46:
Scott Brown leads Martha Coakley 51-46 in our final Massachusetts Senate poll, an advantage that is within the margin of error for the poll.
Over the last week Brown has continued his dominance with independents and increased his ability to win over Obama voters as Coakley’s favorability numbers have declined into negative territory. At the same time Democratic leaning voters have started to take more interest in the election, a trend that if it continues in the final 36 hours of the campaign could put her over the finish line.
Here’s what we found:
-Brown is up 64-32 with independents and is winning 20% of the vote from people who supported Barack Obama in 2008 while Coakley is getting just 4% of the McCain vote.
-Brown’s voters continue to be much more enthusiastic than Coakley’s. 80% of his say they’re ‘very excited’ about voting Tuesday while only 60% of hers express that sentiment.
The interesting part of this poll is that Brown has increased his lead over the prior PPP poll which showed Brown up by 1. The PPP poll is consistent with the recent Suffolk poll which showed Brown up by 4, and Rasmussen which had Brown up by 2 [clarification: among voters who definitely will vote, with Coakley up 2 among “likely voters”].
The details of the poll show some surprises, including that Obama has only a 1 point net approval rating (44-43), which would call into question whether Obama’s appearance today will help Coakley.
Also, the public continues to oppose the current health care proposal, 48-40, further casting doubt on the Coakley strategy of highlighting Brown’s opposition.
In what could be serious trouble for Coakley, her favorability rating is a negative 7% (44-51) whereas Brown is a positive 19% (56-37).